Great Moments in “DUH”
Former U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey has opened up a 14-point lead among likely voters in his bid to deny U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter a sixth term, according to the latest Daily News/Franklin & Marshall Poll…
Specter, who switched from Republican to Democrat in April, was tied at 30 percent in a general election match-up with Toomey among registered voters, with 35 percent undecided, the poll found.
But Toomey jumped out to a 14- point lead when the poll targeted “likely voters,” people who said they are certain to vote and are paying close attention to the race.
Among that group, Toomey led Specter 45-31 percent, with 20 percent undecided.
Sestak actually has better numbers: yes, Toomey leads among registered voters by 28-16 percent with 51 percent undecided, and with likely voters around 41-19 percent with 37 percent undecided. But that’s a lot of undecided votes, probably because the voters don’t know Sestak as well as they know Toomey and Specter.
And when it comes to Specter, people don’t like those facts they know: Democrats know Specter’s history as a Republican, and don’t trust him. Republicans know Specter as an unreliable partisan. And everyone knows Specter switched parties due to one driving principle: saving Arlen’s ass.
So this is my prediction: if Specter wins the primary, Toomey will kick his ass in the general. I’m not a member of the party elite like Rooney, Rendell, and Casey, but almost every democrat I know despises Specter, and that includes those who support him over Sestak. Republicans will not support Specter the opportunist they almost defeated in 2004 over Toomey the true-believer.
But Sestak, I think, has a decent shot of trouncing Toomey. He’s not a known quantity, like Specter. He’s got the military background that may appeal to undecideds on the right without the troubling Republican record that alienates undecideds on the left. And finally, in an anti-incumbent year, he’s waging a very open battle against the Pennsylvania Democratic party establishment.
Full disclosure: I haven’t decided who I’m voting for, or if I’m even going to bother voting at all.
