In Heaven There Is No Beer, and We May Run Out Here Too
Speaking of supply and demand, I ran into a very disturbing article tonight. Not only is oil production down, but so is hops production, and this could make for some very steep price hikes in the cost of your favorite brew (particularly for those who gravitate to craft brews, rather than the AnhauserBuschCoorsMiller swill). And, if you’re a homebrewer like ASZ’s good friend Brendan, the price shock and availability of premium hops varieties is likely to be even more pronounced.
Richard Blair, All Spin Zone
Attytood has a bit on this as well. Both are absolutely correct about the impact on both commercial brewing and homebrewing.
If you’re not a brewer or don’t understand beer, let me put it into the clearest terms possible: hops are what make beer taste like beer. Without hops, beer would taste like Grape Nuts cereal. Hops adds bitterness and aroma to beer. Without hops, swill like Budweiser would taste like sweet-ish water.
According to George Hummel and Nancy Rigberg, the owners of Philadelphia’s Home Sweet Homebrew, the hop yield this year was totally fucked thanks to a variety of factors. And troubles with energy that have led to changes in agricultural priorities have screwed the market for malt.
Thanks to a record drought in Europe and bad weather in the Pacific Northwest, the hop yield is down. WAY down. So far down that, according to George and Nancy, when Sierra Nevada Brewing bought the entire crop of Cascade hops, their signature hop in Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, it STILL wasn’t enough. George and Nancy are rationing their hops, and plan to sell only to regulars or those who buy an entire batch of beer (ie malt, specialty grains, yeast, and hops). Even then, they aren’t sure whether they’ll make it through the Christmas season: there is literally NOTHING AVAILABLE. The price of hops at Home Sweet Homebrew has literally doubled.
There is an almost infinite variety of hops, all of which add different flavors and aromas to beer. If you’re a homebrewer like me, you may not be interested in consistency as much as in delicious beer. If you’re a commercial brewer, you’re looking for consistent flavor, whether you manufacture flavorless swill like Miller or something refreshingly different like Yard’s IPA. Sierra Nevada’s flagship ale tastes like it does because of those Cascade hops. If they substitute with varieties like Simcoe or Fuggles or Kent Goldings or Czech Saaz, the resulting beer will NOT taste like Sierra Nevada. It will still be good beer no doubt, but it will not taste the same: imagine replacing the clove flavors in Coca-Cola with cinnamon. Still yummy, but not a Coke.
Worse, because of the way in which hops grow, new plantings won’t achieve any substantial yield for three years. So if you like those super-hoppy IPAs like I do, it’s time to get used to more lightly hopped brews like Brown Ales, Porters, and Scottish Ales. This is no skin off my nose, but the lack of variety is going to be a major blow to small brewers like Dogfish Head, Victory, Troegs, and others who have made their mark based on highly hopped brews.
On top of that, as the Seattle PI notes,
The 1990s’ excess hop crop ended up being processed into pellets and extracts, building up substantial excess inventory. Excess production that was 2, 3 and 5 years old was selling on the open market and as a result brought prices down. Hop prices had dropped so low in recent years that in many cases they were lower than what it costs to grow them. For example: prices got as low as $1.70/lb. for pellets of Cascade. That is way below what it takes for a hop grower to cover his costs.
So there’s no money in planting hops. If you read further, you’ll see that the plunging dollar has made importing hops (as well as malt) from overseas that much more expensive.
Speaking of malt, you’ll also have to get used to the price of beer going up: that’s because there’s a lot more money in corn cultivation thanks to the ethanol boondoggle, and less farmers are planting barley, the principal ingredient in beer. So the price goes up as the supply goes down: again, turning to Europe is no option, as shipping costs spurred by a weak dollar and incredibly expensive oil demolish profits.
Also, thanks again to the shortage of oil (again, this comes straight from a home brewing supplier), the costs of manufacturing plastic are up, so it costs more to package supplies. And the cost of soda ash, the principal ingredient in glass, has gone up, which means every bottle costs more.
There’s really not that much to be done right now, but you can bet that brewers are going to be more conscientious of making sure hops are planted and cultivated. As the supply dwindles, there will quickly be money to be made again in hops cultivation.
Unfortunately, there’s nothing to be done anytime soon (if ever) about the high costs of fuel and shipping. I would expect the Big Boy Brewers like Anheuser Busch, Coors, and Miller to push hard for more barley cultivation in the US: the success of craft brewing has actually been good for the big commercial brewers as well, most clearly demonstrated by the Big Boys’ purchase of interests in small companies like Red Hook and Shipyard, and the creation of subsidiaries like Blue Moon (Coors) and Stone Mill (and organic beer owned entirely by Budweiser), as well as their recent non-branded campaign, “Here’s to Beer”.
In the meantime, one of the best things you can do is plant your own hops. The rhizomes are available in spring, and the vines make an excellent privacy shield. I’ll be setting up a planter on my back deck. Not only is the aroma of this useful little plant delicious, it attracts honeybees, who need all the help they can get to survive. There’s a feral hive next door and they really appreciated our sunflowers, so I have high hopes for my hops.
Other than that, get used to brown ales. It’s gonna be awhile (perhaps 2010) before you’re going to have something as hoppy as Dogfish Head’s 120 minute IPA again. Cus when their hops run out, it’s a three year wait.
5 Responses to “In Heaven There Is No Beer, and We May Run Out Here Too”
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November 8th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
But I thought beer was “proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.” per Ben Franklin?? Does this mean that s/he’s pissed at as now??
November 8th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
sorry, “pissed at US now??”
November 8th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
If I was God, I would be livid with humanity right now.
I’d be mad enough to eat nails.
November 9th, 2007 at 12:43 pm
You might as well pass that bucket of nails my way too. What kind of weather conditions do the hops like? We have five acres that might be suitable for hops. It’s on a pretty high hill and very windy. No trees for shade and so dry the ground has deep cracks. It gets scorching hot in the summer with little rain. The winters are mild with the exception of twenty-below wind chills in January and February. If hops like this sort of atmosphere, I just might be able to save a little of humanity. One beer at at time.
November 10th, 2007 at 4:39 am
Damn. While I love hoppy beer (my wife makes fun of me for every other case of beer I buy being Sierra Nevada Pale Ale), this may force craft breweries to back off of overhopped beers.
‘Cos that trend was getting annoying. Nothing like trying to drink a pilsner that I felt I needed to shave my tongue afterwards.
Or I may be chuckling about this when I have some crazy standoff in my basement when I have ten cases of IPA and several guns.
You’ll never take me or my beer alive, coppers!