The Fighting Continues
While I agree with Noz about whether or not there is less discussion than I might expect about the fighting in Israel and Lebanon on left blogs (although that seems to be a lot different as of this afternoon), I simply cannot comprehend NOT writing about it. There is so much at stake, for so many people, if the Middle East falls into chaos. So I’ll throw my two cents in.
I do not pretend to be an expert on matters martial or economic, but it seems to me that we are setting ourselves up for a smashing failure, something more calamitous than the collapse of the British Empire, if things go wrong, as things tend to do. If the Middle East melts down, it will not be simply our energy supplies that are radically disrupted, but our access to food and medicine as well. Consumer costs are cheap, but most of our goods and more and more of our foods are imported from Asia and South America, and thus the cost of all goods and services will rise substantially. Our fertilizers and pesticides are largely petroleum based as well, and while everyone rightly decries factory farms and irresponsible land use, it’s also true that it’s these chemicals that have allowed us to produce so much fuckin’ cheap shitty food, that poor people are more likely to be fat than wealthy people! Our infrastructure, the highways we travel every day, the roofs of our houses in Philadelphia are made of bitumoinous tar as well.
As Mr. Cheney famously said, “The good Lord didn’t see fit to put oil and gas only where there are democratic regimes friendly to the United States”, and that of course is the crux of the biscuit. It is not enough that there be oil, it is of vital importance that we have access to it for the next few years even as we establish a sane energy policy. And if the region plunges into chaos, into the conditions in which no one can get to the oil, there will be problems for everyone, and problems that are likely to kill people.
That’s why I’m fascinated and horrified at the swirl of clouds over that chunk of geography. I use the metaphor deliberately: when I look at maps of the conflict, I can practically see footage from old World War One movies, cartoon storm clouds spiraling over Sarajevo, and thick black arrows depicting the offenses across the continent. But it’s not like World War One, the death rattle and collapse of arrogant and obsolete Great Powers, or World War Two, the fueled by paranoia and revenge. It’s something more random and sloppier. Plans have been overtaken by events.
We’ll be able to keep the lights on because of our domestic store of coal, but how far back in time do we want to go? Do we really want an energy policy copied from 1897?
Thoughts on a hot summer night, as we look toward a coming heat wave, which will send electric use soaring, and with it fossil fuel consumption. More later.
2 Responses to “The Fighting Continues”
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July 15th, 2006 at 4:34 am
Wow, Brendan. Lots of doom and gloom here.
I don’t think this will have significant long term effects on oil prices. Yes, crude is trading higher because of ‘instability’, but none of the oil producing countries are directly related. Sure, Hezbollah has ties with Iran, but I think this is just going to play out like it did in the mid 80s- Israel will go in, destabilize the area and someone else will clean up the mess when they pull out.
My biggest fear is that our President is reading Revelations looking for what to do next. I wonder if he’s one of those Dispensationalists actually looking forward to the end of the world…
July 15th, 2006 at 6:53 am
Actually, there will still be oil for sale: our biggest oil supplier is canada. For now of course: politics is all about self-interest and a shortage of oil woul dhurt everyone (look how instability in Nigeria screws up the market, for example).
Check out the billmon article linked in my kvetch about my dad. Food fer thought.
The fact remians: jeopardizing our access to oil is a bad thing. even hardcore environmentlaist types will admit that.